Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Poll Shows Disconnect in Ohioans’ Stance on Immigrants
ML Schultze WKSU Public Radio, page A1
Before getting to selections from an article in the ABJ below (black text), some data that was in the hard copy of the paper: immigrants make up 4% of the population in Ohio, compared to 13% nationally and most in Ohio are from Asia (37%) and then from Europe (29%) with only 21% from Latin America, compared to 53% from Latin America nationally. 

And a question: if immigrants are such a small portion of the population in Ohio, and nearly non-existent in the Ohio counties where Trump's support is strongest...and immigration does not even show up in polls asking Ohioans what their top concerns are today... WHY do Trump supporters in Ohio say they prefer him because of his stance on immigration?  

At the national level political claims-making can often get away with being more symbolic and less grounded in specific policies, sometimes displacing local conversations that tend to be more pragmatic with more expressive and satisfying media-driven sound bites designed to distract and mobilize by amplifying some fears and muting others (such as countervailing concerns about the harms done to families). Stu Scheingold made a similar (and much better) argument about the relationship between national and local law & order narratives. I am appropriating it here.

Donald Trump’s biggest applause line at rallies in Ohio continues to be a promise: “Don’t worry; we’re going to build a wall.”
It’s a line that oddly resonates in a state where the experience with immigration is far different from most of the country.
Ohio has only about a third the national average when it comes to the percentage — 4 percent — of foreign-born people living here. The state ranks 12th from the bottom. And of that tiny group of immigrants, fewer than 1 in 5 are here without the necessary papers.
Moreover, support for Trump is strongest in the counties where immigrants are least likely to be found — if not leaving.
Polling of Ohioans for the Your Vote Ohio project shows an odd disconnect on the issue. Asked in an open-ended question to name the top issues in 2016, immigration doesn’t make the top 10.
But when asked to define the reasons they like either Trump or Hillary Clinton, it’s his stand on immigration that helps Ohioans define Trump as a good candidate.
And in a state that is always pivotal to winning the presidential election, Trump has found ways to make immigration critical to dealing with the most important issues on Ohioans’ minds, among them the economy and terrorism....

Ohio’s immigrants also tend to be more educated and have higher incomes than the immigrant population nationally and Ohioans in general. More than 20 percent of foreign-born residents have a bachelor’s degree compared with less than 16 percent of native Ohioans.
Even among immigrants without documents, 37 percent have at least some college.
Average earnings are about 18 percent higher than native Ohioans....

The economic impact
Regardless of their origin, lots of Ohioans believe immigrants take jobs and keep wages low for native-born Americans....
Census data show that immigrants are indeed less likely to be jobless than native Ohioans — by a little more than a percentage point. And they’re far more likely to have jobs in private businesses rather than government.
Ohio’s foreign-born population is clustered largely around its big cities. Franklin County has the most and has been growing the fastest. But midsize counties like Summit and Montgomery have seen growth, too.
Lagging far behind is the region along the Ohio River, which continues to lead Ohio in unemployment. It’s in counties like those that Trump prevailed over Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the March primary election.
Reanne Frank, a demographer at Ohio State University, says the high unemployment creates a familiar pattern.
Immigrants “have very little to do with the issues that these communities are facing. They’re not even there. But some of these communities are going through transformations, and some people are being left behind. And these kinds of moments are when immigration as a scapegoat gains a certain amount of traction.”

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