Friday, December 2, 2016

Democratic Failure
This Slate analysis suggests that it is incorrect to conclude that white working class voters turning out for Trump accounted for the outcome.
Among Rust Belt voters earning less than $50,000 a year, DT won 10% more than Romney, HRC won 20% fewer than Obama.

DT won 9% more of voters earning more than $100,000.

Looking at all white voters in the Rust Belt, DT won 450,000 more but HRC won 950,000 fewer.
“Compared with 2012, three times as many voters in the Rust Belt who made under $100,000 voted for third parties. Twice as many voted for alternative or write-in candidates. Similarly, compared with 2012, some 500,000 more voters chose to sit out this presidential election. If there was a Rust Belt revolt this year, it was the voters’ flight from both parties. 
In short, the story of a white working-class revolt in the Rust Belt just doesn't hold up, according to the numbers. In the Rust Belt, Democrats lost 1.35 million voters. Trump picked up less than half, at 590,000. The rest stayed home or voted for someone other than the major party candidates 
This data suggests that if the Democratic Party wants to win the Rust Belt, it should not go chasing after the white working-class men who voted for Trump. The party should spend its energy figuring out why Democrats lost millions of voters to some other candidate or to abstention. Exit polls do not collect information about why voters stay home. Perhaps it’s time someone asked them.”
Somehow this makes me feel less horrible about the election.

The message here is clear: we need to look internally to figure out how to fix this mess.

We cannot blame bigoted white men (who are within the universe of those who might support our coalition).

We cannot blithely blame Trump or the Alt-Right or ‘the media.’

It’s on us.
  • Those who assumed HRC would coast to victory and did not scream ‘no’ when she starting shifting from battleground states to a 50-state strategy.
  • Those who encouraged the disillusioned to abandon the Democrats and support one of the third party candidates who had no prayer of victory.
  • Those who let the ugliness of the campaign push them into alienation, inactivity, and perhaps not even voting.
  • Those who watched uncritically (like me) as HRC ran a dull insider campaign in the primary and then repeated this in the general.
  • Those who thought a Socialist would never get a fair shake (and would be slaughtered) in a general election, as I did, even as there was strong countervailing evidence to suggest he might have overcome this.
  • Those who focused on the circus and drama centering on Trump tweets and daily disgusting dialogues, assuming that this was enough to defeat him.


And more…but what I like most is that all of these focus on ourselves rather than seek self-righteous refuge in blaming the usual suspects.


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